Mighty Nora
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |