Ships Inn
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 14th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |