Baltimore Heart
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 17/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 22/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |