Big To Do
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |