Debt Paid
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/03/2024 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/05/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 28/02/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |