11
Franz Josef
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 28/02/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 19/05/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 01/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |