Friar Newton
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |