Lucky Mischief
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |