Overstatement
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |