Sugoi

9yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Kentucky Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-04	Ellis Park	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-06-10	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-10	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-03-29	Turfway Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/01/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
15/02/2026	10th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/03/2026	8th	10/1	47%	36%	-0.11
29/03/2026	4th	13/2	66%	67%	+0.01
10/05/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
10/06/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	91%	+0.08
04/07/2026	6th	5/1	74%	44%	-0.29
26/07/2026	4th	7/4	91%	57%	-0.34
05/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	38%	+0.38