Beach Colt
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |