7
Camp Hale
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 105
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 08/02/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 08/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |