1
Doroteo
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 01/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |