2
Jefferson Street
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 104
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength87%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2024-09-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2024-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2024-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 11/04/2024 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 05/05/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 07/06/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/07/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 24/08/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 21/09/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 26/10/2024 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |