8
Market Street
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 16/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |