3
Ship Ship Hooray
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength1%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 08/04/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 18/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |