Vamos Carlitos
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 22/06/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |