Admiral's Wave
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 76
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |