6
Freedom Maker
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |