Kaz Sweet Heist
7yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 68
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |