3
Patton's Tizzy
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |