IvyArcIvyArc
4

Blue Fashion

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 81

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 87 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 87 par24/01C8OR 87C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 1m39y 119 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 84 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m39y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 82 par18/02C7OR 82C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 87 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 87 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 1m39y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 83 par22/03C6OR 83C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 85 · 1m39y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Delaware Park 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 85 · 1m70y 121 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 85 par11/06C8OR 85C8 @ Delaware Park 23/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 122 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 78 par9/09C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-23Delaware Park?7th7th0
2026-06-11Delaware Park?5th5th0
2026-05-02Tampa Bay Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-03-22Tampa Bay Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-03-11Tampa Bay Downs?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0111/0311/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04
08/02/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
18/02/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
11/03/20267th11/271%0%-0.71
22/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
02/05/20262nd11/486%75%-0.11
11/06/20265th5/493%20%-0.73
23/07/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
09/09/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68