Breezy Dance

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 54

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2024-08-14	Penn National	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2024-07-11	Penn National	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -90.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2024	5th	10/1	47%	56%	+0.08
14/08/2024	8th	10/3	82%	0%	-0.82