Heaven's Promise
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 26/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |