2
True Phenomenon
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 72
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-08-22 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-07-31 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2023-08-04 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2023 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 31/07/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |