1
Capt. Candy
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |