6
Guaio
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |