3
Mogalu
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |