Chicoco

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 65

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength17%

Delivery trend -20.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/07/2026	5th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
15/08/2026	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00