Honest Spin
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 42
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -13.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 10/09/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |