Neck Of Cairo
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Meadowlands | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |