5
Nova's Time
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 52
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 12-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |