5

Dats My Pharaoh

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 69 · 1m110y 126 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 69 par19/12C9OR 69C8 @ Laurel Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m 126 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Laurel Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 1m110y 126 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 73 par5/02C8OR 73C7 @ Laurel Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 74 · 1m110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 74 parC7 @ Laurel Park 15/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 75 par15/03C7OR 75C8 @ Laurel Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m 126 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Laurel Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 1m110y Fas 126 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 74 par2/05C8OR 74C8 @ Delaware Park 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m 121 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Delaware Park 03/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m 121 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 81 par3/09C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Delaware Park?9th9th0
2026-08-06Delaware Park?8th8th0
2026-05-02Laurel Park?1st1st0
2026-04-11Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-03-15Laurel Park?5th4th+1
2026-02-22Laurel Park?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1222/022/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength97%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
09/01/20262nd11/893%88%-0.05
05/02/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
22/02/20265th14/126%20%-0.06
15/03/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
11/04/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
02/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
06/08/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
03/09/20269th25/10%11%+0.11