9
Home Invasion
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |