Agendum

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 73

Delaware Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼1

Strength23%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Colonial Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-18	Delaware Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-02-08	Tampa Bay Downs	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength72%

Delivery trend -8.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/02/2026	8th	25/1	0%	22%	+0.22
18/07/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	71%	+0.00
30/08/2026	4th	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06