3
Coach Michael
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 68
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -15.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |