6
Assume Nothing
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 98
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-03-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 08/06/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/07/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/09/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 15/02/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 21/03/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |