1
Embrace My Uncle
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 96
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |