5
In The Dance
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |