7
Calisa
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 29/03/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |