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Decree And Declare

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 72

Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Aqueduct 13/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 6f110y Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2025 · OR 81 par13/04C5OR 81C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Laurel Park 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 78 par15/03C5OR 78C5 @ Penn National 08/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Penn National 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 77 par22/05C7OR 77C7 @ Penn National 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 74 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 74 parC7 @ Penn National 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 73 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 73 par22/07C7OR 73C7 @ Penn National 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 71 parC7 @ Penn National 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 72 · 5f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 72 par2/09C7OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Penn National?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-19Penn National?4th3rd+1
2026-07-22Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-07-09Penn National?2nd1st+1
2026-05-22Penn National?4th3rd+1
2026-05-08Penn National?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/048/0522/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/04/20254th9/276%57%-0.19
28/05/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
15/03/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
08/05/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
22/05/20264th6/492%40%-0.52
09/07/20262nd10/1195%67%-0.29
22/07/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
19/08/20264th13/891%25%-0.66
02/09/20263rd11/893%33%-0.59