2
Moonlit Weekend
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 67
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |