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Baila Conmigo

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair 3-time winner over middle distances on the all-weather. Failed to progress from his hurdling debut when fourth of 11 in maiden at Kilbeggan (2m, good) earlier in the month and he looks one for handicaps after this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 64 · 1m4f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 64 par1/0464OR 64BHA64 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m3f90y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m1f Yie 153 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 64 par15/0464OR 64BHA64 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 64 · 2m40y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 1m4f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 64 par12/0764OR 64BHA69 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 69 · 1m4f Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 69 · 1m6f14y Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 par31/0769OR 69C8 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m Goo 163C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1643/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?4th4th0
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?4th4th0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA696th5th+1
2026-07-30GalwayBHA693rd2nd+1
2026-07-12DundalkBHA641st-1th+2
2026-05-31ListowelBHA645th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0431/0531/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +7.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/20263rd3/184%83%-0.01
11/04/202612th8/158%0%-0.58
15/04/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
31/05/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
12/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
30/07/20263rd22/10%88%+0.88
31/07/20266th16/116%71%+0.55
21/08/20264th10/147%75%+0.28
03/09/20264th8/158%70%+0.12