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15

Lisnadill

4yo Filly · 10-9

Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#7

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't beaten a rival on the Flat since joining her present yard and duly showed nothing sent hurdling in first-time cheekpieces after 3 months off at Down Royal recently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f130y Yie 1292/04C8BHA62 @ Naas 28/04/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 62 · 5f205y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/04/2025 · OR 62 parBHA53 @ Gowran Park 02/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 53 · 1m1f100y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2025 · OR 53 par2/0653OR 53BHA53 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 53 · 1m2f84y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 53 parBHA59 @ Navan 13/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m2f40y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 59 par13/0759OR 59BHA56 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 56 · 1m2f Hvy 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 56 parBHA55 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m5f190y Sft 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 55 par3/0555OR 55BHA53 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 53 · 2m Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 14628/08C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down Royal?7th7th0
2026-05-29Down RoyalBHA5314th11th+3
2026-05-03SligoBHA5514th11th+3
2026-03-30NavanBHA5613th10th+2
2025-07-13NavanBHA596th4th+2
2025-07-05NaasBHA532nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/045/073/0528/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 13-16 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 11th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20257th33/10%0%0.00
28/04/202515th40/10%13%+0.13
02/06/20253rd17/255%86%+0.30
05/07/20252nd18/581%92%+0.11
13/07/20256th5/287%50%-0.37
30/03/202613th40/10%0%0.00
03/05/202614th100/10%0%0.00
29/05/202614th100/10%0%0.00
28/08/20267th100/10%14%+0.14