IvyArcIvyArc
1

Little Ginger

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it third time lucky in bumpers when seeing off 10 rivals at Kilbeggan (19f) in the spring. Given a considerate introduction to hurdling when twelfth of 24 in maiden at Punchestown (2m, good) the following month and ought to do better somewhere down the line.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 1m7f165y Hvy 16815/02C?C0 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m3f60y Sft 16816/04C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m2f120y Gd 16815/05C?C8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 24 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1666/06C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Punchestown?12th12th0
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?1st1st0
2026-04-16Limerick?4th4th0
2026-02-15Punchestown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0216/0415/056/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20264th66/10%0%0.00
16/04/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
15/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
06/06/202612th7/163%52%-0.11