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Lone Ash Lad

4yo Gelding · 11-2

Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#15

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gustav Klimt gelding who offered little when seventh of 11 in bumper at Kilbeggan (2m, good to soft) on debut 4 weeks ago. Makes hurdles bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 16521/08C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength20%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20267th28/10%40%+0.40