Lygon Lad
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 105
Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Fairyhouse | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-01-26 | Naas | BHA110 | 11th | 15th | −3 |
| 2024-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 15th | 14th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/12/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 76% | +0.50 |
| 15/12/2024 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 26/12/2024 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 26/01/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 17/03/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 06/04/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |