13
Nirisque
5yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 105
Downpatrick · T-Met Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Naas | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-04-07 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -16.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 15/12/2025 | 15th | 10/1 | 47% | 26% | -0.21 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |