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9

Beggars Rock

7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100

Downpatrick · Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has bounced back to form of late winning handicap chases at Wexford and at this course in August, beating Presenting Lad by 4¾ lengths at this track on latest. Reverts to hurdling off much lower hurdles mark and looks up to completing the hat-trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA112 @ Kilbeggan 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 112 · 2m4f90y Goo 166 · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 112 par16/05112OR 112BHA116 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 116 · 3m1f24y Goo 156 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 116 parBHA116 @ Cork 03/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 116 · 2m4f Yie 153 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 116 par3/01116OR 116BHA112 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 112 · 2m5f45y Yie 152 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 110 · 3m2f50y Goo 157 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 110 par12/04110OR 110BHA103 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 103 · 3m Goo 160 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 103 parBHA102 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 102 · 3m60y Goo 148 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 102 par2/08102OR 102BHA108 @ Wexford 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 108 · 2m3f20y Goo 164 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 108 parBHA113 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 113 · 2m1f165y Gd 159 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 113 par31/08113OR 113projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1131st1st0
2026-08-08WexfordBHA1081st1st0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10210th10th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1036th6th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA1103rd3rd0
2026-04-04FairyhouseBHA1126th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/054/042/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
09/06/20257th5/174%57%-0.17
03/01/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
04/04/20266th20/10%69%+0.69
12/04/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
16/05/20266th12/137%58%+0.21
02/08/202610th28/10%47%+0.47
08/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
31/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21