12
Calm Flight Ahead
5yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 91
Downpatrick · Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA81 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Navan | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thurles | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/03/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 21/03/2026 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 10/04/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |